War-torn Myanmar Goes to the Polls in Broadly Condemned Political Theater.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a electoral process broadly rejected as a farce, with major political parties banned, numerous figures jailed and as much as half of the country unlikely to vote because of an continuing civil war.

A Phased Ballot Amid Conflict

The military government is conducting a staggered election nearly half a decade after it seized power in a takeover, which sparked massive protests and escalated into a civil war.

Analysts note the junta, with China's support, is seeking to legitimise and consolidate its power as it seeks a way out of the costly deadlock.

"The environment does not allow for the exercise of the rights of freedom of expression, association or peaceful assembly," UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk said.

Over two hundred people have been charged for interfering with or opposing the election under a recently enacted legislation which imposes harsh penalties, including the death penalty.

Director Mike Tee, actor Kyaw Win Htut and entertainer Ohn Daing were among the prominent figures convicted under the law, which was passed in July. They were each handed a seven-year jail term after criticising a promotional video promoting the elections.

Immense Challenges and Coercion

Civilians are "facing pressure from all sides," Mr Türk noted in a statement, pointing out that armed rebel groups have issued their own threats asking people to boycott the polls.

The army has been engaged on multiple battlefields, against both pro-democracy fighters who reject the coup, as well as ethnic armed organisations which have their own forces. It lost control of large parts of the country in a string of defeats, but clawed back territory this year following relentless airstrikes enabled by support from China and Russia.

All of this and the fact that significant regions of the country are still under opposition control presents a huge operational hurdle for holding an election.

A Limited Vote

The ballot is set to take place in three phases over the coming weeks in 274 of the country's 330 townships, with the remainder deemed too unstable. Outcomes are expected around the end of January.

There is not expected to be any voting in up to fifty percent of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, some districts will go to the polls, making it difficult to forecast a likely turnout.

A handful of parties, including the junta-supported Union Solidarity and Development Party, are fielding candidates nationwide, while dozens more parties and non-aligned contenders will compete only at the state or regional levels.

Approximately forty groups, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which achieved landslide victories in 2015 and 2020, have been banned. Suu Kyi and many of the party's key leaders have been jailed under charges broadly viewed as fabricated, while others are in exile.

International Condemnation

"By splitting the vote into stages, the junta can change their approach if the outcomes in the initial round do not go their way," commented Htin Kyaw Aye, a spokesman of the watchdog group Spring Sprouts.

Western governments, including the United Kingdom and the EU legislature, have dismissed the vote as a pretence, while regional bloc Asean has urged negotiations to precede any election.

The Myanmar regime has rejected criticism of the polls, maintaining that it aims to "return [the country] to a multi-party democratic system".

"The election is being held for our nation. It is being held for the people of Myanmar. It is not being held for the international community," a military representative told a briefing last week.

Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing warned earlier this week that those who choose not to participate are turning their back on "the path to democracy".