Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the country and triggered chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but very few government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. Each authors two essays that strive for objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.
Debates range over national emblems, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the concept that there could be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a negligent official who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified points, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster must join the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
